Reliance Infrastructure Ltd - target price of Rs1,968

Our meeting with the management of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. (REL Infra, earlier Reliance Energy Ltd.), on its Analyst Day reinforces our positive view on the stock. REL Infra has reorganized its holding structure to create separate SPVs for each different line of business, which we believe enables the company to unlock value in the EPC and BOT businesses over the medium term.

The company continues to focus on integrating its power distribution business with generation through Reliance Power Ltd. and transmission projects through Reliance Power Transmission Ltd. Moreover, REL infra is looking to scale up its EPC business (Rs90bn order backlog) through bidding for EPC contracts of RPL’s generation projects and other third party projects. The company has reported progress as per schedule in its five road and two metro rail BOTs. Further, Reliance Power (RPL), the power generation SPV of REL Infra, has acquired three coal mine concessions in Indonesia, with estimated reserves of 2bn tons having average GCV of 4,000-4,500Kcal with 30% moisture.

The total reserves are sufficient for 10,000MW of power capacity, including the 4,000MW Krishnapatnam UMPP and 1,200MW Shahpur thermal power plant. RPL has added another 4,000MW of projects to its portfolio, taking the total capacity under development to ~32,000MW. We continue to like REL Infra’s business model of integration across the value chain of power coupled with strong presence in EPC and BOT segments.